The Washington Geological Survey reports the next major earthquake could on the Seattle Fault could happen in the next 50-years; and the Tsunami that follows would be devastating.
“Scientists estimate about a 5% to 7% chance,” State Lands Commissioner Hilary Franz made the announcement during a news conference from Pier 62 overlooking Puget Sound, “3 to 5 minutes is all that separates a seismic event from the arrival of Tsunami waves. 3 to 5 minutes!”
Computer models suggest a 7.5 magnitude quake would produce a towering Tsunami. At Pier 62 it would create at 10 feet we’re told, but produce a horrifying 42 wave that would inundate the Great Wheel before pushing into downtown Seattle as much as a mile and a half.
Geologists say the ripple effects from this earthquake will be felt as far south as the Port of Tacoma and across Lake Washington.
These new findings aren’t the product of seismic activity, the Seattle Fault has been quiet for centuries; but the law of average dating back 3500 years, “the geologic record indicates a history of smaller, more frequent earthquakes every 700 years or so” says Commissioner Franz, “placing us unfortunately well within the window for a seismic event.”
A smaller earthquake on the Seattle fault would be a magnitude 6.5; devastating by any account.
Last year Seattle City leaders passed a resolution to seismically retrofit buildings made from un-reinforced masonry, “there are a significant number of buildings especially in the downtown core that are a hundred years old, and a lot of those are unreinforced masonry,” says Curry Mayer, the director of Seattle Emergency Management.
Un-reinforced masonry often collapses like a sandcastle during an earthquake; and the state estimates there are 1100 buildings like that in Seattle.