(NEW YORK) — On Feb. 28, the United States and Israel launched massive strikes on Iran in an operation targeting military and government sites that President Donald Trump has said could last as little as four weeks.
One month later, both countries remain engaged in a war that has impacted the wider Gulf region, killing thousands of people, as the Pentagon is preparing to surge thousands of troops to the Middle East, according to U.S. officials.
As the U.S. enters its fifth week of the conflict, here’s a look at how we got here, where things stand and where they may go from here.
Negotiations break down
Operation Epic Fury began months after the U.S. and Israel carried out strikes on nuclear weapons facilities in Iran, with Trump declaring at that time that the regime’s nuclear capabilities had been “obliterated.”‘
In the weeks leading up to the Feb. 28 strikes, the U.S. tried to negotiate with the Iranian regime to reach a nuclear deal, with Trump saying he was weighing whether to strike. A day before launching Operation Epic Fury against Iran, Trump said he was “not happy” with the negotiations.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was among those killed in Tehran in the initial strikes, with his son Mojtaba Khamenei later chosen to succeed him.
Trump said at the start of the “major combat operations,” which occurred without Congressional approval, that they were to “defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime,” and he called on the Iranian people to depose the regime.
In the weeks since, more than 1,440 civilians, including at least 217 children, have died from U.S. and Israeli strikes in Iran as of March 23, according to a report from several human rights groups. Iranian officials have blamed the U.S. for a missile strike on an Iranian elementary school that killed nearly 170 people. The Trump administration has said it is investigating the incident.
Regional allies attacked
Iran retaliated against the strikes with missile and drone attacks targeting Israel, regional U.S. bases and multiple Gulf nations, primarily targeting U.S. interests in the region.
Thirteen American servicemembers have been killed since the war began, including seven from retaliatory strikes in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia and six from an aircraft crash in Iraq. Over 300 troops have also been injured, a U.S. official said Friday.
Iran has also launched a series of retaliatory strikes against the energy infrastructure in several Gulf states after Israel hit its largest gas field — in what one Qatari official called a “dangerous escalation.”
Experts say the strikes and the threat of further attacks risk throwing global energy markets into a state of protracted chaos.
Amid the conflict, Israel has also intensified its long-running strike campaign against the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia in Lebanon and expanded its ground operations in the south of the country. More than 1,000 people have been killed and thousands more injured in Lebanon amid this escalation, according to Lebanese officials.
In response to the U.S.-Israeli strikes, Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime passage for the oil and shipping trades, threatening an energy crisis.
Iran has attacked several oil tankers since the war began in late February, halting nearly all shipping traffic. The supply shock has sent the price of oil surging.
Trump has threatened to attack Iran’s power plants if it doesn’t fully reopen the strait, since extending the deadline to do so to April 6.
US’ expansive aims
Trump’s stated goals in Iran have shifted and expanded in the weeks since the conflict began, from talks of regime change and peace throughout the Middle East to, more recently, reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Among other key aims, the U.S. military has said Iran’s navy and ballistic missile stocks and production capabilities have been degraded by airstrikes.
Making sure Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon has been another major goal of Trump’s. Iran’s intent to build a nuclear weapon, according to Trump, was a central justification for the war.
Trump has suggested that Americans could go in to seize Iran’s enriched uranium. Experts previously told ABC News that a large American force on the ground would likely be needed to take the nuclear material but would carry a lot of risk.
During a Cabinet meeting on Thursday, Vice President JD Vance emphasized the importance of preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and warned that there are “further military options” possible.
Where things go from here
The White House has said “productive” negotiations have been ongoing between the U.S. and Iran, while officials in Tehran have publicly denied that any talks have taken place.
The U.S. has presented Iran with a 15-point framework for a peace deal via Pakistan, according to White House special envoy Steve Witkoff. As of Friday, the U.S. has not received a response from Iran, according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Sources previously told ABC News the plan addressed Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear programs as well as maritime routes.
The negotiations come as the U.S. is preparing to surge as many as 5,000 troops to the Middle East, according to two U.S. officials, and the Pentagon is seeking $200 billion in supplemental funding for the war. The funding request has been met with bipartisan skepticism from some lawmakers.
Rubio on Friday declined to answer questions from reporters on whether the U.S. planned to deploy ground troops in Iran. Though he said the U.S. can achieve its goals without putting boots on the ground.
Trump, who has said he believed the war could last up to four weeks, and at other times four to six weeks, said this week that the operation is “ahead of schedule” and should end soon. Rubio told reporters Friday that the operation could end in a “matter of weeks, not months.”
The Israel Defense Forces said Friday they need “a few more weeks” to fully degrade Iranian military capabilities, such as missile-launchers, a senior Israeli security official told ABC News.
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