COVID continues its spread in the U-S and around the world and local experts say it’s time for another shift in strategy.
The COVID situation in China could go one of two ways, according to disease modelers at UW’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. The country is currently using a “zero-COVID strategy”, which involves regional lockdowns when an outbreak hits. That appears to have kept the Omicron variant from causing a major surge in China, but the experts question whether that policy will work long-term.
Doctor Christopher Murray with IHME says it’s possible China could still see a surge especially with low vaccination rates for people ages 80 and up. Murray says, “Currently, our models are assuming that the success that China’s had with the zero-COVID strategy controlling Omicron in February, around the time of the Olympics, could be replicated, but I think we’re also hearing reports that the economic costs of this are rising.”
Murray says they’re also watching South Africa, where they are seeing new sub-variants become more active, with BA.2 getting some competition by rising cases of BA.4 and BA.5. Considering we’re now more than four months past the November-December Omicron surge, Murray says some of that is likely attributed to waning immunity from Omicron.
Murray says a continued push to get people vaccinated is important, but that right now, we should focus on increasing distribution of anti-viral drugs, like Paxlovid, because the IHME models show they will save thousands of lives.
Meanwhile, Doctor Murray also says here in the US, we’re still seeing a rise in cases in eastern states as well as close to home in King County, but we’re not seeing an increase in deaths. He says despite the bump in cases we’re seeing in the US, the overall projection sees a continued decline until winter, when IHME expects another surge.
